It was the kind of thinking that used to govern most of football. A few years ago – although it could really have been many examples from the last 50 – a promising manager was being pursued by one of the game’s wealthiest clubs. He had built up a fine team with an upwardly mobile club, and it looked like they could be on the brink of something special… but that one thought wouldn’t go away.
“These opportunities don’t always come along, so you have to seize them.”
The manager ended up taking it, but not quite seizing it. He didn’t perform to the level required, albeit amid a lot of debate around the circumstances he walked into. His career has never reached the same heights, but the key point is that its trajectory was, in that moment of acceptance, drastically changed.
The old thinking was wrong. That job just wasn’t right for him.
He’s not the only one. There are a few examples, from Graham Potter to Julen Lopetegui, and there’s much more to it than just “backing yourself”.
Unai Emery is at a very different point of his own career, having experienced historic Europa League success – with three different clubs – over 22 years, but it’s impossible not to wonder whether any of this weighed on his own thinking as he now discusses a new deal with Aston Villa.
The Basque will be all too aware of the noise around Manchester United’s interest, and the latest developments – including Villa’s very ‘LinkedIn’ post about "long-term strategic direction" – all felt very pointed ahead of Sunday’s trip to Old Trafford. Many in football even believe that one reason his club resorted to the absurdity of last week’s legal threat against Jamie Carragher was aggravation about their manager consistently being linked to “a bigger club”.
This, it should be acknowledged, is still Manchester United. It’s Sir Alex Ferguson, Sir Matt Busby and his babes, and so much glory and legacy. Despite all the current problems at Old Trafford, there is a history and consequently inspiration for the future; of what you might be able to do with that.
Others in football believe Emery might previously have been open to joining such a club, primarily because of the will to finally win a major league and the Champions League.
That isn’t to say either are indefinitely impossible at Villa given the club’s rapid recent growth, but their own fans have been frustrated over regulatory constraints.
So, what of a highly ambitious manager?
And yet such strands lead into the nub of this, where this new thinking is warranted.
Emery’s record above Europa League level might raise considerable questions over whether he would suit a club of United’s scale, and those at Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain have long insisted his outlook didn’t fit.
Far more relevant, however, might be that United just don’t suit Emery.
There are numerous persuasive arguments as to why he should absolutely sign that contract and stay at Villa.
None of them are to deepen these debates about club size, or even Emery’s own career.
It’s more that the 55-year-old is in the very rare modern position of having earned an almost ideal job.
At Villa, everything is built around him, in a way you just don’t really see at this level any more. The only comparison in the Premier League or any of Europe’s wealthiest clubs is at Arsenal, where Mikel Arteta was only given such authority after initially proving himself. Emery has almost complete control, and those circumstances have ensured everything is in tune. The work of a very good manager is consequently greatly amplified, so that Villa consistently over-perform.
That can even be seen in how they’ve responded to the great frustration of the summer. They’re already in far better shape than would have been expected. Emery might have had his Europa League winners ripped up, but it is already impressive how he has built a coherent unit. Sure, there are still issues and gaps that are difficult to fill amid constraints, but there’s a bite there. This is personified in Nicolas Jackson.
And, from that, and a relatively volatile Premier League, there is a real opportunity for top five again. That can bring further growth… but maybe more? He’s already had more at Villa than most managers will ever enjoy, since he is an adored club legend.
By contrast, links to United have been met with scepticism by tranches of the Old Trafford support. They are also fully aware that the actual problems are way above the manager. United are unlikely to give Emery the keys to the club, in the way Villa have done. Sir Jim Ratcliffe has already been insistent on building a modern sporting director culture, even if this iteration has so far failed.
Worse, a U-turn on that, to make someone like Emery manager, would actually just look even more indicative of dysfunction; that they’re going from extreme to extreme again. And that’s even before you get to the amount of rot that still needs to be cleared at Old Trafford. United are not yet close to being a club who just need a coach coming in and imposing his influence to get them winning. They require a patient rebuild, but the wait can derail coaches.
Put bluntly, if this comes down to a chance of winning the league or Champions League, there’s an argument that Emery specifically has a better opportunity at Villa, certainly in the medium-term. There would be so much more work to do at Old Trafford, with a lot more risk.
Maybe most pertinently, he would be giving up a very good thing, a very rare thing, that has the potential for so much more. And it’s that context that is also so key to such debates. It’s not just that the thinking has started to change. So has the reality. With more and more clubs looking to head coaches in wider infrastructures, the jobs are much more transitory. Such opportunities actually come along more frequently, but they’re far more contoured than before.
Better-run clubs than United are now geared in such a way that they only suit certain profiles, or certain ideologies. Tactical shifts can take time, and be painful, as currently being seen at Newcastle United. On Premier League pitches, the game is so systemised and optimised that the margins have become very thin. Hence wild swings in results when clubs aren’t in tune.
At Villa, it’s almost note-perfect for Emery. That isn’t something to be given up easily.
The thinking has changed.
